"The pace is picking up"
"On the contrary, sharp rises in fossil fuel prices and concerns about supply security have accelerated global investment in clean energy." Lauri Myllyvirta, chief analyst at the Finnish Center for Energy and Clean Air Research, recently accepted to Chinanews.com During the interview, the reporter pointed out that the global green energy transformation process has not slowed down, and has even accelerated. "For many governments, energy security issues instinctively mean a focus on fossil fuels, but clean energy is a much stronger foundation for energy security, and investors and consumers are 'voting with their feet'."
“The most striking trends in the global green energy transition over the past three years have been the explosive growth in solar photovoltaic installations and electric vehicle sales. Distributed clean energy technologies such as batteries and heat pumps are also booming,” Millivirta said, coal, oil Large increases in the price of natural gas and natural gas have made clean energy extremely competitive economically, and the growth of manufacturing of these technologies in China has contributed to the growth of global deployment.
The International Energy Agency released the 2023 mid-term oil market report in June this year, stating that due to the global energy crisis that has highlighted high oil prices and supply security issues, the pace of global transition to clean energy technologies is accelerating, and the growth rate of global oil demand will be significant in the next few years. slow down. The transition to a clean energy economy is accelerating, and global oil demand is expected to peak before 2030 with the development of electric vehicles, improvements in energy efficiency and other technological advances, said Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency.
Gu Baihe, an associate researcher at the Institute of Science and Technology Strategy Consulting of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, previously wrote that in the short term, countries will rely more on fossil fuels to ensure energy supply security, which may have a negative impact on global climate goals. But in the long run, it will drive more investment in renewable energy and energy efficiency, and accelerate energy transition.
"Golden Development Period"
Gu Baihe believes that more and more countries realize the importance of energy independence and seek to replace traditional energy through clean energy development. As an important solution to enhance energy independence and ensure energy security, renewable energy is expected to usher in a golden period of development.
In recent years, many countries and regions around the world are actively seeking to transition to a clean, low-carbon, and efficient energy system by increasing the development of renewable energy. For example, in 2021, China issued the "Carbon Peak Action Plan by 2030", pointing out that it will vigorously develop new energy, comprehensively promote the large-scale development and high-quality development of wind power and solar power, and further improve the guarantee mechanism for the consumption of renewable energy power. By 2030, the total installed capacity of wind power and solar power will reach more than 1.2 billion kilowatts. In March 2022, the European Commission proposed a plan called REPowerEU, which plans to gradually get rid of dependence on Russian fossil fuels by 2027, and proposes to increase the EU's energy efficiency target from 9% to 13% in 2030, and at the same time reduce the energy efficiency of the EU by 2030. The share of renewable energy in EU energy consumption has increased from 40% to 45%. In August of the same year, the U.S. "2022 Inflation Reduction Act" came into effect, planning to invest 369 billion U.S. dollars in the fields of energy security and climate change in the next 10 years, among which renewable energy production and manufacturing are the top priorities.
According to the latest "Renewable Energy Market Update" report released by the International Energy Agency, due to policy support, rising fossil fuel prices, and active promotion of solar and wind power generation projects, the global installed capacity of renewable energy is expected to increase by one-third this year. Global renewable energy generation will continue to grow next year, and the world is expected to have sufficient solar PV manufacturing capacity by 2030.
Millivirta believes that the current breakthroughs in solar and wind energy will provide the basis for a green and low-carbon transformation of global energy. "Achieving a 100% clean energy future will require substantial enabling actions and measures, such as reforming electricity markets to allow flexible use of renewable energy, and investing in electricity storage and transmission, and countries that get these enabling policies right will stand to gain the most."
Significant "North-South Gap"
It should be noted that although many countries are accelerating the pace of energy green and low-carbon transformation, the road to transformation is still long and difficult. Analysts pointed out that in the process of energy green and low-carbon transformation, there is a problem of development imbalance between developed countries and developing countries, and the "North-South gap" is significant. Developing countries, especially small island states, least developed countries and African countries, have made slow progress in the absence of financial incentives and technical assistance.
British "The Economist" magazine published an article that many developing countries still prefer cheap energy. Due to the unstable supply of renewable energy, it is difficult to completely replace fossil energy in the short term, resulting in a gap between supply and demand. In addition, the cost of new energy is much higher than that of traditional fossil fuels.
In June this year, the International Renewable Energy Agency released the "World Energy Transition Outlook 2023" report, pointing out that at present, energy transition investment is still concentrated in a few countries and only in a few technologies. The report recommends that developed countries and multilateral financial institutions should increase financial support for energy transition in developing countries. Only by concentrating efforts on solving the bottlenecks in the transformation of developing countries and unleashing their huge market potential can the United Nations sustainable development goals be achieved at an early date.