The European Photovoltaic Industry Association released the "European Household Energy Storage Market Outlook 2022-2026" report in December last year, which mentioned: "In 2022, the installed capacity is expected to be 3.9GWh, a year-on-year increase of 71%. The median forecast is 2023-2026 , the annual installed capacity is 4.5GWh, 5.1GWh, 6GWh, 7.3GWh". According to this report, the average annual growth rate of European household storage installations in the next four years will only be +16%. After the report is disclosed, the average valuation of the A-share household storage sector, whether it is household storage batteries or household storage inverters Around 50, so they all fell a lot later. After all, the largest market for household savings in the world is in Europe.
If you believe in the report of the European Photovoltaic Industry Association and believe that it must be the case, you may be led astray.
There will be no Russian-Ukraine war in 2021. In 2021, residential energy storage in Europe will add 2.3GWh, a year-on-year increase of +107%. For the second consecutive year, it has greatly exceeded the previous forecast of the European Photovoltaic Industry Association. bigger. The report issued by the European Photovoltaic Industry Association is unreliable, but it also has a purpose. As an official forecast, deliberately lowering the growth rate can avoid market hoarding and hype, and is more conducive to the stability of household energy storage prices. It is the power of politics. In 2022, if it were not for the collective shortage of batteries, inverters and installers, the newly installed capacity of household energy storage should be far more than a 71% increase.
Why did household energy storage in Europe develop rapidly before the Russo-Ukrainian War? Main reason 1: High degree of marketization of electricity prices, high peak-to-valley electricity price difference range, providing huge profit space for peak-valley arbitrage. Main reason 2: 50% in Europe Most of the houses are detached or semi-detached houses, which are suitable for laying photovoltaic panels, and photovoltaics generate electricity during the day and cannot be generated at night, and at night is the peak of household electricity consumption. The main reason is three: for families who want to buy new energy vehicles, it is best to configure household power consumption. Storage, charging is convenient and cost-effective, and it also reduces the dependence on external crude oil for the country (the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has reached 20%, and the demand for household optical storage is becoming more and more rigid). Therefore, the market demand for energy storage systems in Europe was very good before the war started.
By the end of 2022, the number of households using residential solar power generation facilities and residential battery energy storage systems in Europe will be more than 1 million, while the total number of European residences is 400 million, and the penetration rate of household storage in Europe is less than 3%, even if only detached and semi-detached houses are counted For residential buildings, the penetration rate is only 5%. It is not a semi-detached house, and there will always be a balcony. The balcony mini photovoltaic system has been popular in Germany first, and then other countries such as Austria have followed suit. As long as there is a residential photovoltaic system, there will be household storage demand, so the total household storage penetration rate , It is really very low at present, and the future growth space is very broad.