Against the background of global energy transformation, the new energy industry has witnessed the start-up of wind power, photovoltaics, and electric vehicle tracks. domestically, photovoltaics and electric vehicles globally).
At present, due to disputes, epidemics and other reasons, there is a shortage of primary energy, rising electricity and gas prices, and the economics of solar + storage are getting better and better. The superimposed carbon peak and the trend of carbon neutrality are confirmed.
We believe that household energy storage will emerge as a new force and become the fourth high-speed growth track in the new energy industry. It is estimated that the compound growth rate of global household energy storage installations will reach 112% from 2021 to 2025, which is the most worthy of the current energy storage industry. configuration part.
Photovoltaic: It is estimated that the global compound growth rate of newly installed photovoltaic capacity in 2021-2025 will be about 38%
According to the 2021 global renewable energy installed capacity data released by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), by the end of 2021, the global cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity will reach 843GW.
In 2021, the world will add 133 GW of new photovoltaic installed capacity. In 2025, it is estimated that the global new photovoltaic installed capacity will reach 480GW, with a compound growth rate of about 38% from 2021 to 2025.
Wind power: It is estimated that the compound growth rate of new domestic wind power installed capacity will be about 17% in 2021-2025
In 2021, the new installed capacity of wind power in the world will hit the second highest data of 93.6GW in history. Against the background of global carbon neutrality and the high price of fossil energy caused by geopolitical conflicts, the demand for renewable energy by governments of various countries continues to grow.
Affected by the rush to install in 2020, China's newly installed wind power capacity in 2021 will be 47.6GW, a year-on-year decline. It is expected that under the background of comprehensive parity of land wind and imminent parity of sea wind, the new installed capacity of domestic wind power will step out of the cycle and move towards growth. It is estimated that the compound growth rate of new installed capacity of domestic wind power will be about 17% in 2021-2025.
Electric vehicles: It is expected that the compound growth rate of electric vehicle battery installed capacity will be about 40% in 2021-2025
The driving force of global electric vehicle sales is changing from policy to model and cognition-driven, and the role of policy is shifting from stimulus to support. The increase in the variety of models and the improvement of product power will promote the rapid growth of consumer demand. It is expected that the compound growth rate of demand in 21-25 will exceed 33%;
The superimposed internal structure continues to optimize, the proportion of pure electricity increases, and the charge capacity increases, and the compound growth rate of electric vehicle installed capacity demand is about 40%. It is estimated that the global demand for electric vehicles will reach 9.87 million and 19.58 million in 2022 and 25, with penetration rates of 13% and 26%, corresponding to installed capacity demand of 526 and 1271GWh.
Household energy storage: It is estimated that the new installed capacity of global household energy storage will grow at a compound growth rate of 112% from 2021 to 2025
The global energy storage market first looks at household use, and it is expected that the annualized growth rate will exceed 100% under the background of high energy prices. Among them, Europe's newly installed household energy storage capacity this year is expected to exceed 4GWh, making it the largest household energy storage market;
Despite rushing installations in 21Q4, the United States still recorded 334MWh of newly installed household energy storage capacity in 22Q1, +25% quarter-on-quarter;
Under the influence of factors such as disaster backup power, insufficient grid reliability, and high dependence on external energy sources, the demand for household energy storage in countries and regions such as Japan, Australia, South Africa, Brazil, and Southeast Asia has also continued to increase.
European households are thriving, leading the global energy storage market
In 2021, the new capacity of electrochemical energy storage in Europe will exceed 3GWh, and the cumulative installed capacity will exceed 8GWh. The new installed capacity is mainly contributed by front-end and household use, among which the household use has maintained a growth rate of more than 40% for many years.
According to statistics from Solar Power Europe, the installed capacity of residential battery energy storage in Europe will exceed 140,000 in 2020, with a capacity of 1,072MWh, an increase of 44% over 2019.
According to IHS Markit statistics, the installed capacity of household energy storage in Europe will reach 1,717MWh in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 60.2%.
Among them, Germany, Italy, Spain, Austria, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom newly installed 1028MWh, 168MWh, 123MWh, 110MWh, 94MWh, and 80MWh respectively, accounting for more than 95% of the total installed capacity of household energy storage in Europe.
Germany: The main force of household energy storage has formed a GWh-level market
According to the statistical report of the German Energy Storage Association (BVES), the German energy storage market will grow from 6.2 billion euros in 2019 to 8.9 billion euros in 2021, with a growth rate of 29% in 2021.
It is expected to continue to grow by more than 29% this year, reaching a scale of 11.4 billion euros. Among them, the household scale is the largest at 4.4 billion euros, followed by public utilities (that is, before the meter) and industrial and commercial energy storage.
In the context of gas supply interruptions and soaring electricity prices, strong demand has driven the rapid growth of household battery energy storage. In 2022, the number of household battery energy storage units in Germany will exceed 500,000, with a total capacity of about 4.4GWh and a total power of about 2.5GW.
United States: Explosive growth of energy storage in 2021, the fastest growth rate before the table, and continued high growth of household use
In 2021, the newly installed energy storage capacity in the United States will reach 3.58GW/10.5GWh, and the new capacity will increase by 204% year-on-year, which is more than 200% for two consecutive years, making it the largest single energy storage market in the world.
Among the three scenarios of grid-scale, residential and non-residential, grid-scale is the largest and fastest-growing market.
In 2021, the installed capacity in the United States will be 9.23GWh, a year-on-year increase of 253%; followed by household installed capacity of 920MWh, a year-on-year increase of 71%; industrial and commercial installations will add 314MWh, a year-on-year increase of 5%.
Entering 2022, energy storage in the United States will continue to maintain vigorous growth. The installed capacity of energy storage before the Q1 table will reach 747MW/2399MWh, and the capacity will increase by 283% year-on-year.
However, due to the rush to install in 21Q4 due to the retreat of the ITC policy, the pre-balance sheet decreased from the previous quarter. The installed capacity of household energy storage in 22Q1 reached 145MW/334MWh, a year-on-year increase of 36% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 25%.
China: Household energy storage has not yet started, but it is worth looking forward to
According to the statistics of CNESA, in 2021, the scale of newly commissioned new energy storage in the world will reach 10GW for the first time, and the newly commissioned scale of new energy storage in China will reach 2.45GW, of which the user side accounts for about 24%. China's user-side energy storage is mainly industrial and commercial, industrial parks, charging piles, and port shore power.
Due to the high reliability of the domestic power grid infrastructure, the rare occurrence of power outages, and the low electricity prices for domestic residents, there is a lack of power for household energy storage to be installed.
At present, individual regions such as Hebei Province and Zhuji, Zhejiang have begun to require distributed photovoltaics to be mandatory for storage. More than a dozen provinces have piloted peak-valley electricity prices for residential electricity consumption (users can choose tiered electricity prices or peak-valley electricity prices).
There have been household storage allocation cases in Zhejiang, Fujian, Shanghai and other regions, and the domestic household energy storage market is worth looking forward to.
Drivers of household energy storage in Europe: dominated by subsidy transition to economy, external catalysis is also important
Driving Force 1: Household Energy Storage Subsidy Policy
The development of distributed solar storage in Germany is inseparable from the encouragement of policies and the support of mechanisms. The policy lasted for 6 years and was divided into two stages. The first stage is from 2013 to the end of 2015, providing initial installation subsidies.
The second stage is from 2016 to the end of 2018. The subsidy is mainly in the form of low-interest loans and cash subsidies, and the total subsidy is about 30 million euros. The second stage only allows users to feed back up to 50% of the peak power of the photovoltaic system to the grid.
The subsidy policy has helped Germany become one of the largest household energy storage markets in the world. In 2013, there were less than 10,000 household and commercial energy storage systems in Germany. By the end of 2018, the number had exceeded 120,000, with a CAGR>60%.
After the end of the subsidy policy, the German household energy storage market is still growing rapidly, with newly installed capacity increasing from 283MWh to 1028MWh from 2018 to 2021, CAGR=53.7%.
From the household distributed energy storage subsidy policies in Germany and other European countries, it can be seen that the starting point of the policy is mostly to encourage self-consumption, requiring that the on-grid electricity (power) should not exceed a certain percentage;
Take the form of "initial installation subsidy" to directly reduce the initial investment pressure on users in purchasing, leasing and installing energy storage systems. The subsidy amount is between 30% and 60% of the initial investment;
There are requirements for energy storage cycle life or quality assurance, usually more than 7 years (Germany even proposed more than 10 years), which prevents low-quality and low-priced products from occupying the market.
Driving force 2: primary energy shortage superimposed electricity price rise
Starting from the fourth quarter of 2021, the Dutch natural gas TTF spot wholesale price rose from 85 euros/MWh at the beginning of the quarter to 116 euros/MWh in early October, fell back to 60 euros/MWh at the end of the month, and made a comeback in November. 183 Euros/MWh, and even exceeded 200 Euros/MWh in March this year.
At the same time, according to Eurostat data, the total natural gas consumption in the EU will reach 412 billion m3 in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 4%, hitting the highest level in 2011.
Natural gas imported in Europe is mainly used for heating and power generation. Due to the more aggressive coal and nuclear withdrawal policies, natural gas power generation accounts for a relatively high proportion in Europe.
Against the backdrop of hostile relations between Russia and Europe, the import of Russian gas to the EU is expected to continue to decline, and the supply of primary energy will continue to remain tense.
In terms of electricity prices, major European countries such as Germany, Italy, and France have successively hit new highs. The wholesale electricity price in Germany once reached 269 euros/MWh, and Italy even broke through 300 euros/MWh.
Driving force 3: The high growth of photovoltaic installed capacity in Europe has created a good soil for household energy storage
According to statistics from Solar Power Europe, in 2021, 27 EU member states will add a total of 25.9GW of grid-connected photovoltaics, a year-on-year increase of 34%, making it the year with the largest increase in photovoltaic installed capacity in history, with a cumulative installed capacity of 164.9GW.
In 2021, the five countries with the largest new installed photovoltaic capacity in Europe are Germany, Spain, the Netherlands, Poland, and France, with newly installed installed capacity of 5.3GW, 3.8GW, 3.2GW, 3.1GW, and 2.5GW respectively.
As the largest economy in Europe, Germany has maintained its position as the largest photovoltaic and energy storage market in Europe in recent years. After the end of the full feed-in tariff, medium and large industrial and commercial photovoltaics can enjoy attractive floating electricity price subsidies (feed-in premiums) and get driving stimulation again.
In 2021, the EEG Act was amended to eliminate the need for renewable energy surcharges for self-generation and self-use systems, which further promoted the development of household and small-scale industrial and commercial photovoltaic systems.
In 2020, Germany's newly installed household photovoltaic capacity will exceed 1GW, of which more than 60% will be equipped with battery energy storage systems. Spain maintains the second largest share of newly installed photovoltaic capacity in Europe, with approximately 3.8GW of newly installed capacity in 2021, of which nearly 3GW will be built to cooperate with the PPA agreement for centralized photovoltaic power plants.
Spain's self-contained rooftop photovoltaic is still in its infancy, and the "Spanish Recovery Plan" (Spanish Recovery Plan) currently regards rooftop photovoltaic as an important means of energy transformation.
In June 2021, the Spanish government signed a self-generated self-consumption photovoltaic investment plan of about 450 million euros. The Netherlands will add 3.2GW of new photovoltaic installed capacity in 2021, maintaining its third position in the EU. Among them, industrial and commercial rooftop photovoltaics account for slightly more than 40%, household photovoltaics slightly less than 1/3, and ground power stations only account for about 20%.
Driving force 4: Excellent economic efficiency against the backdrop of falling prices of optical storage systems and rising electricity prices
The gap between the cost of electricity per unit of electricity for European solar storage systems and retail electricity prices continues to widen
According to statistics from Solar Power Europe, the unit price of small photovoltaic systems in Germany dropped by 11% and the unit price of small energy storage systems dropped by 24% between 2016 and 2020.
Although the unit cost of the system will increase in 2021, the price will continue to decline in the medium term. Solar Power Europe predicts that the price of photovoltaic and energy storage systems will start a downward cycle in the second half of 2022, while BNEF predicts that it will drop by 58% by 2030.
European Feed-in Tariff System: Encourage self-use, decline but still have certain subsidies
Europe allows a certain degree of self-use and surplus electricity to be connected to the grid to increase the income of household photovoltaic owners, and all European countries have certain policy subsidies.
In the FiT system represented by Germany, the power grid guarantees the purchase of renewable energy power at a fixed price, which is equivalent to locking in the owner's income in advance. my country's previous system of grid-connected electricity at a benchmark price originated from FiT.
With the passage of time and the continuous improvement of new energy installed capacity, the policy gradually shifted to the FiP model of market price + premium.
Some countries adopt the net-metering method for on-grid electricity, but this method is equivalent to the power grid undertaking the task of peak regulation, so it is not conducive to the development of household energy storage.
At present, the policy is also changing from full net electricity metering to partial net electricity metering or net electricity billing, that is, the electricity price enjoyed by the on-grid electricity is lower than the retail electricity price, or the spot market electricity price is adopted to reflect the cost of grid peak regulation.
Taking Germany as an example, the cost of household "light + storage" can be recovered in 5 years, and the economy is better
The electricity price of German residents is as high as 30 cents/kWh or more, and the combined operation of energy storage and photovoltaics for residents can achieve better economy. Suppose a typical household consumes 20kWh of electricity per day, and the retail electricity price is 30.22 cents/kWh.
It is divided into whether there is photovoltaic or energy storage, assuming 5 scenarios for economic evaluation, it can be seen that the German household photovoltaic storage system will recover the cost in about 3-6 years, and the IRR is as high as 15%-30%.
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A typical household photovoltaic storage system includes photovoltaic modules, group